Findings from 15 September to 22 September

Executive Summary

The most notable finding this week is that the gap between the two overall leaders Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff has closed in terms of both news and blogosphere coverage. At the outset of the month Ignatieff dominated both news and blogosphere coverage while Rae has gained ground. Ignatieff still receives a high percentage of coverage, though his share of coverage has fallen to Rae’s level this week (Ignatieff 19%, Rae 18%). Rae’s percentage of news coverage has stayed relatively the same over the last three weeks. In terms of the blogosphere, Rae had the largest jump in coverage from last week (up 9 from 17% to 26%), bringing him to roughly the same percentage of coverage as Ignatieff.

The candidates with the most news coverage were Ignatieff (19%), Rae (18%), Kennedy (14%), Dion (12%), and Dryden (10%). There was little overall change here from last week, although Ignatieff regained a slight lead in total news coverage (Ignatieff has led in the blogosphere from the outset).

Only Ignatieff (27%), Rae (26%), and Dryden (11%) received more than 10% of the total blog coverage.

There was little movement among the bottom tier candidates in terms of news (most notably Brison who’s share of coverage went from 9% to 6%)

There were no significant changes in blogosphere coverage for the bottom tier candidates from last week, other than Bennett whose coverage has increased slightly despite her withdrawal from the leadership race. This is most likely on account of her proclaimed support for Bob Rae.

Candidate's coverage in the News

• Michael Ignatieff (19%) – Ignatieff's coverage in the news was up slightly (by 2%), from last week. This is following a steady drop in coverage in previous weeks, from 28% for the week ending 9/1, to 26% for the week ending September 8th, to17% the week ending September 15th, and to 19% this week.
• Bob Rae (18%) – Rae’s coverage decreases by 1% over last week.
• Gerrard Kennedy (14%) - Kennedy's coverage increases 1% over last week
• Stephane Dion ( 12%) - Dion's coverage stays the same as last week.
• Ken Dryden (10%) – Dryden’s coverage decreases 1% over last week.
• Scott Brison (6%) - Brison's coverage decreases this week by 3% over last week to his lowest percentage of coverage to date.

Other Noteworthy News Changes:

All the less popular candidates continue to receive substantially more coverage this week, from their early week lows of 1-3% to this week: Bennett (up 1% to 6%), Findlay (up 1% to 5%), and Fry (up 1% to 5%).

Candidates Coverage in the Blogosphere:

• Michael Ignatieff (27%) - Roughly the same as last week (28%), but down considerably from week ending September 1st (49%). Continues to receive substantially more coverage in the blogosphere compared to news coverage (this week 27% blog coverage vs. only 19% news coverage).
• Bob Rae (26%) - Showed significant jump from last week's coverage in the blogosphere (17%). Rae’s percentage of blogosphere coverage reaches Ignatieff’s this week.
• Ken Dryden (11%) - Down 3% from last week’s coverage, just slightly higher than his coverage in the news.
• Stephane Dion (9%) - Down 2% from last week. His percentage of blogosphere coverage has been steadily declining for the last few weeks, from 15% for the week ending 9/8, to 11% last week, to 9% this week.
• Gerard Kennedy (8%) - After an initial high of 16% on September 1st Kennedy remains steady between 8-9% over the past 3 weeks. This week marks the second week in a row that Kennedy's coverage in the blogosphere has not matched his coverage in the news (this week 8% for blogs, 14% for news).
• The remaining candidates are lead by Brison and Bennett 5% (both down 2% from last week), followed by Volpe, Findlay and Fry at 3%.

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