Coverage of the Candidates in the News and Blogospheres

Blogosphere Analysis – Kennedy Enjoys Momentum

Coverage in the Blogosphere is up for all candidates. Michael Ignatieff holds the lead with 411 blog posts this week from 232 last week. He is followed by Bob Rae, who received 365 stories this week, up from 142 last week. For the first time since September 1, Gerard Kennedy surpasses Stephane Dion in terms of number of blog postings with 345 posts (up from 142 last week) compared to Dion’s 262 posts (up from 137 last week). Kennedy is now closing in on Rae and Ignatieff in terms of percentage of blog postings with 20% this week, compared to Bob Rae’s 20% and Ignatieff’s 25%.

Blogosphere Analysis - Dion Closes in on Rae

In general coverage for all candidates remains stable this week, with the exception of Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff. Ignatieff remains the leader in blog coverage with an increase of 4% (from 28% last week to 32% this week). By contrast, Rae’s coverage dropped by 8% this week (from 28% last week to 20% this week). Dion’s proportion of coverage remains stable at 19% and this week Dion closes in on Rae in terms of total amount of news stories.

News Coverage Analysis - Calm Before the Storm?

News coverage remains stable with no major changes. Rae’s proportion of coverage dropped by 2% while Ignatieff’s proportion increased by 2%. Even though the recognition of Quebec as a nation was a central issue in the liberal leadership campaign, the relative stability in proportion and amount of news coverage dedicated to each of the candidates indicates that the Quebec issue has been appropriated by the conservatives.www.infoscaplab.ca)" title="Liberal Leadership Candidate Weekly News Coverage (November 18 to November 24): Source: Google News/Blogs, Research by Infoscape (www.infoscaplab.ca)" class="image preview" width="620" height="417" />Liberal Leadership Candidate Weekly News Coverage (November 18 to November 24): Source: Google News/Blogs, Research by Infoscape (www.infoscaplab.ca)www.infoscaplab.ca)" title="Liberal Leadership Candidate Weekly Blog Coverage ( November 18 to November 24): Source: Google News/Blogs, Research by Infoscape (www.infoscaplab.ca)" class="image preview" width="620" height="418" />Liberal Leadership Candidate Weekly Blog Coverage ( November 18 to November 24): Source: Google News/Blogs, Research by Infoscape (www.infoscaplab.ca)

Blogosphere Analysis – Rae and Ignatieff Still Lead the Pack in Blog Coverage, but Dion Creeps Up

The only top tier candidate whose blogosphere coverage increased this week was Stephane Dion (moving from 13% to 19%). However, Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff still have a significant lead in coverage in the blogosphere (Rae went from 31% last week to 28% this week, Ignatieff from 29% to 28% and Kennedy from 13% to 10%). Overall in terms of the total number of posts, this week has considerably fewer posts in comparison to the weeks immediately proceeding and following delegate voting.

News Coverage Analysis

In terms of news coverage for the week ending November 17th, the major finding is that top tier candidates Stephane Dion (from 11% last week to 18% this week) and Gerard Kennedy (from 9% to 13%) saw increases in their coverage while Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae both saw decreases in their coverage (Ignatieff from 32% to 27% and Rae from 34% to 22% this week). The lower tier candidates saw a slight increase in their coverage due in large part to the discussion about possible delegate movement after the convention’s first ballot.

Rae Takes the Lead in News Coverage and the Blogosphere

News Coverage Analysis

This week Rae and Ignatieff continue to lead the pack in news coverage with significant leads over the other candidates; however, Rae received slightly more news coverage than Ignatieff this week (Rae: 34%; Ignatieff: 32%). Dion (11%) and Kennedy (9%) continue in their third and fourth place slots when it comes to news coverage. Rae’s coverage notably increased by 12% from 22% of last week’s news coverage, and this increase can be attributed partly to Ignatieff’s failed charge of voter fraud against Rae. Generally, this week was a fairly slow week for news, with overall coverage continuing to decline for the second week in a row, as the coverage focus turned to the US elections, and the liberal leader candidates took time off to strategize and get ready for the last big push before the final Liberal Leadership convention.

Blogosphere Analysis

Pack Thickens as Overall Blogosphere Coverage Falls

Ignatieff and Rae still dominate coverage in the blogosphere but have experienced a significant drop in the number of blog posts this week (Ignatieff had 374 posts last week and 205 this week while Rae had 331 last week and 129 this week). Ignateiff’s coverage still dominates the blogosphere (at 33%) while Bob Rae’s coverage has decreased by 10% (from 31% last week to 21% this week). The overall drop in blogosphere coverage resulted in both Stephane Dion and Gerard Kennedy re-joining the rest of the pack (with all candidates other than Ignatieff and Rae garnering less than 64 posts this week). Joe Volpe and Scott Brison each saw increases in their percentage of blogosphere coverage Volpe by 8% (from 2% to 10%) and Brison by 7% (from 2% to 9%). These changes are, in all likelihood related to media events; the decision on Volpe’s fine appeal and Brison’s posing for a nude portrait.

Week Ending October 27, 2006

Please follow the link below to view analysis and charts.

News Coverage Analysis:

Rae and Ignatieff Continue to Separate Themselves From Top Tier Candidates (as defined by candidate count going into Decembers convention).

News coverage this week is roughly parallel with the blogosphere, Ingnatieff has slightly more coverage than Rae while Dion and Kennedy received less than half the coverage of the top two candidates. The past five weeks have seen significant peaks and drops in coverage, which we speculate relate to coverage of ‘media events.’ Media coverage increased in response to the super delegate weekend and the combative debate in Toronto.

Blogosphere Analysis:

Rae Continues to Narrow the Gap.

Ignatieff still leads in blog coverage but for the last two weeks Rae has been closing the gap. Dion and Kennedy are also saw slight increases in their blog coverage but are not joining the two front runners.

Executive Report

Liberal Leadership Blog Coverage – Rae and Ignatieff dominate the Blogosphere

The total coverage in the Blogosphere remained at similar levels for most of the candidates. The exceptions were Rae and Ignatieff. Rae’s blog coverage increased dramatically from last week (from 181 stories to 274), while Ignatieff’s coverage continues to steadily increase (from 393 stories to 427). Ignatieff continues to dominate the Blogosphere by receiving the most total stories and the most percentage of stories (39%). Rae and Ignatieff make up for 65% of all coverage in the Blogosphere.

Executive Report for Week Ending October 13, 2006

Blogosphere Tunes into Iggy, While Media Tunes Out: Blosphere Dumps on Ignatieff's "Crime de Guerre" Comment

Liberal Leadership Weekly Blog Coverage

The number of Blog posts decreased for all the candidates except for Ignatieff.

Ignatieff continues to dominate the blogosphere, he was the only candidate who saw an increase in the number of blog postings . As a percentage of total posts in the blogosphere Ignatieff jumped from 25% to 43%. Rae received 20% of the blogosphere coverage about the candidates, compared to 22% for last week. Kennedy also saw his percentage of coverage shrink from 13% to 11%. The last top tier candidate Stepah Dion saw a 1% increase in his coverage from 11% last week to 12% this week.

Liberal Leadership post super delegate weekend Analysis

Blog Coverage:

i) Top Tier as defined by delegate count: (www.liberal.ca/news_e.aspx?id=11936)

Kennedy and Dion saw the largest increase in blog percentage over the last week, increasing by 6%. Dion jumped from 9% to 15% after the super weekend, and Kennedy from 7% to 13%.

However, Ignatieff continues to dominate with blog coverage with a quarter of all posts mentioning his name. Overall his coverage is up by 4%, from 21 to 25%.

Rae remains at the same level of coverage as last week: 19% of all blog posts.

The blogosphere coverage of the candidates roughly mirrors delegate count. Within a variation of 5 percentage points, the candidates received the same percentage of coverage in the blogosphere as they did percentage of delegates chosen during the super-weekend.

ii) Other Candidates:

Apart from Scott Brison and Martha Hall Findlay, all other candidates saw a reduction in their percentage share of blog postings.

The Volpe scandal is clear on the ticker, with a spike in coverage followed by a severe drop-off.

News coverage:

Kennedy and Dion come out of super weekend roughly tied for third place in delegate count, however the media cover Dion four times more than Kennedy. Dion posted 24% as opposed to Kennedy’s 6% share of news coverage (the same percentage Kennedy had a week earlier). Kennedy only received 1% more than Volpe and Dryden and 2% more than Findlay and Brison.

Stephane Dion saw the largest increase in news coverage of all candidates at 11% (from 13% to 24%).

Rae and Ignatieff continue to lead overall; Bob Rae’s percentage of news coverage gained 10% (from 18% to 28%) while Michael Ignatieff had a 7% increase (from 17% to 24%).

Executive Summary

The most notable finding this week is that the gap between the two overall leaders Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff has closed in terms of both news and blogosphere coverage. At the outset of the month Ignatieff dominated both news and blogosphere coverage while Rae has gained ground. Ignatieff still receives a high percentage of coverage, though his share of coverage has fallen to Rae’s level this week (Ignatieff 19%, Rae 18%). Rae’s percentage of news coverage has stayed relatively the same over the last three weeks. In terms of the blogosphere, Rae had the largest jump in coverage from last week (up 9 from 17% to 26%), bringing him to roughly the same percentage of coverage as Ignatieff.